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Here is an Excel file that simulates disc golf throws, based on classification and rating.
PLEASE NOTE: If you downloaded the throw model anytime before April 13, 2010, (or if you get a "Update/Don't Update" box when you open it) your version has a bug. It doesn't use the correct distribution of players. The corrected version is now ready for download at this link.
ThrowModelEZ.xls
I've extended the Throw Model to compute the probability of an Ace. The paper describing the method is Probability of an Ace in Disc Golf.pdf.
A table of the probability of an ace in disc golf by Rating and division is in DiscGolfAceProbability.xls.
This screen shot is an analysis of Hole 5 at the 2009 USDGC. The inputs are hole length in A2, Percent (or number or share) of players, and the size and location of out-of-bounds areas.
For this run, all the players were Open, with ratings from 950 to 1037. The centers and radii of the out-of-bounds areas were set to follow the lakeshore.
The graph shows where the first (red), second (yellow), third (pink) and fourth throws would have landed, if the players made no adjustment to avoid the lake.
A better use for this simulator would be to avoid placing holes too close to the park boundaries. Many disc golfers, park employees and volunteer designers don't realize how wide a fairway needs to be.
Feel free to ask for help: Contact Me
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